Wednesday, June 23, 2010

There will always be those that bet on the horse

This report from Forrester is generating a few snickers in the tech community. Essentially Forrester is betting the farm that iPad sales will diminish, even stop almost completely, and sell only about 3.5 million units this year -- despite the fact that Apple has announced it has already sold 3 million.

While I'll let tech writers debate the sales projections, what does amuse me is the whole horse versus car approach so many media (and tech) writers seem to be embracing. If you don't understand the analogy let me explain it. It was common back almost a century ago for people to race horses against cars in some sort of effort to promote one or the other. The horse, of course, often won early on but inevitably cars got stronger engines and that was that. That didn't prevent old souls from betting on the horse -- after all, their whole lives horses had been the fastest way to go from one place to another.

Now we have the inevitable contrarians who just can't believe that tablets are anything other than stripped down netbooks, and certainly won't have an impact on media. Some of these critics even hold mobile media titles and write for major publications and websites.

No matter. Just like the horse versus car scenario all you will have to do is wait for the data to come in. And in some cases it already is -- the Wired app sales numbers, the number of European news apps hitting iTunes, etc.

In the meantime, if you want to makes some easy money I suggest you find the people at Forrester and place a few bets.