Friday, December 30, 2011

Post # 1057 for 2011: New Year predictions

I don't do New Years resolutions – I wouldn't keep them anyways. And usually I wouldn't do New Years predictions, either. But this seems to me like a good way to end the year as it will give me something to write about late next year.

So let's start with the obvious: the Giants still won't be able to hit the broadside of a barn next year. Now that may not be something you care about, but for me, this is a really good reason to dread 2012.

Another good reason to dread 2012 will be the continued promotion of austerity – both in the U.S. and in Europe. That any economy can grow through contraction should be an obviously absurd notion. But the Keynesian are losing this battle – so more layoffs and government cutbacks will continue in 2012.

Tech: Apple will release an iPad 3 at the usual time. No drama, no major surprises. It's the way Apple rolls, to the disappointment of many tech sites. It will be a big hit, as it will incorporate Siri and attempt to fulfill the vision of this old Apple video:

Sorry, no 7-inch iPad next year.

Media: Newspapers will continue to construct paywalls, but it won't really matter – after all, they weren't making online anyways, so the loss of traffic won't matter. But the drive to construct paywalls will take many publisher's attention from what most should really be doing: developing new mobile, web and tablet products. In the digital age, having one product, print, doesn't cut it. The market for information has fragmented, only the developers will survive the era.

Too many publishers will think they are developers for hiring vendors to launch their products.

The much quoted newspaper consultants will continue to push for aggregation, low pay, layoffs, and fighting Apple. Then they will return to their classrooms until called upon to provide a quote to a lazy reporter.

Magazines will survive. You really think everyone will substitute an aggregation of links for a well-designed, well-edited, well-written magazine? Magazines will continue to go digital, but they will still be magazines.

Other predictions: The Sharks won't win the Stanley Cup (that was an easy one).

The Prime Ministers of Greece and Italy, both former bankers, will decide to merge their countries. Mass layoffs of citizens will ensue as the combined countries will promise to "do more with less (citizens)." Most of those kicked out of their countries will move to Australia.

A major U.S. computer maker will launch a new tablet, kill it off, fire their CEO, and then bring in a new one – someone that recently lost an election in their first attempt at politics.

U.S. Presidential election prediction: Michele Bachmann won't win. (OK, that was too easy.) But neither will Gingrich or Paul (so that leaves the two obvious choices).

But whoever wins, the candidate that triumphs will be the one that best convinces voters to vote against their own interests, and who convinces voters that people just like themselves are the root of all their problems.

Quick predictions: The NYT hires a new CEO, someone from within the club... Rupert Murdoch lays low, 2011 wasn't a good year... Tech writers, following the iPad 3 introduction, debate who is more boring: Tim Cook or Steve Ballmer... DigiTimes will be wrong, again... Media sites will be undeterred and repeat DigiTimes rumors verbatim... NYC will select Cornell to build its tech campus – ten years from now it will become a business school... Phillies fans will spend the summer bragging about their team (but not the fall)... There will be millions of additional Apple v. Google market share stories... Andrew Luck will shock football fans by joining the Calgary Stampeders... England won't win Euro 2012, but if they do no one hear the end of it for a decade... you will have a great, peaceful and prosperous New Year (don't prove me wrong, OK?)

See you again in 2012 – Tuesday, to be exact.