Thursday, May 17, 2012

New study predicts that local advertising will grow 2.6% through 2016, but will shift to mobile and online

TNM normally doesn't reproduce press releases, but this one seems worth reproducing in full. It is a new study that looks at local advertising growth and where those dollars will be spent.

According to BIA/Kelsey's Media Ad View reports, local advertising spending will experience a compound annual growth rate of 2.6 percent between 2011 and 2016, with revenues climbing from around $132 billion to more than $150 billion. BIA/Kelsey, adviser to companies in the local media space, expects spending to increasingly shift from traditional media and direct advertising to digital alternatives. Mobile and online will account for the largest increase in local ad spending, nearly doubling from $11.1 billion in 2011 to $21.8 billion in five years (cagr:14.4 percent).

BIA/Kelsey's Media Ad View reports provide a detailed picture by advertiser category of trends and competitive market intelligence across the entire local advertising spectrum. The Media Ad View analysis shows the major source of advertising in the mobile and online space will be technology/telecom, which will spend $5.1 billion by 2016 (up 80.7 percent). Other top spending categories include retail ($4.5 billion), automotive ($2.6 billion) and health care ($815.3 million).
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"While we expect to see changes in ad spending in some advertising categories, it is significant to note that television and radio continue to hold their own, while out-of-home, online and mobile are having an impact on the overall share," said Mark Fratrik, vice president and chief economist, BIA/Kelsey. "Newspapers are also positioned very well to continue to drive online ad revenues."

This year's Media Ad View revenue reports break down 12 primary categories for advertisers into 94 detailed business categories, further analyzing the spending in each of the 210 local television markets and the U.S. Census' 362 Core Based Statistical Areas. The results provide a detailed picture of the spending in each market around business categories like automotive, education, financial/insurance, general services (i.e., legal, accounting, design), government/political/religion, health care, leisure/recreation, media, real estate, restaurants, retail and technology/telecommunications. The reports also include an analysis of online spending distribution to examine what dollars are being spent online and where.

BIA/Kelsey defines local media advertising as advertising placed on local media outlets, including national, regional and local ads on radio stations, television stations and newspapers. One of the fastest growing categories, technology/telecommunications, will increase by $2.9 billion by 2016. The reports illustrate the industry will increase its investment in online and mobile advertising by 35.1 percent, while reducing its spending in newspapers and magazines, direct mail, TV and radio.

"Media buyers require not only the big picture but the granular one as well," said Fratrik. "Our approach to Media Ad View this year was to analyze and report it from every possible angle to help ad managers better understand where the money is flowing in both the national and local markets. Our online breakout will be particularly important for understanding the competitiveness and pricing of online advertising."

Using retail furniture stores in the Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL-market as an example, Fratrik says that in 2011, $2.3 million in advertising was spent across classifieds/verticals (45.4 percent), local search (38.5 percent), other display ads (11.2 percent) and video (4.9 percent). In 2016 that profile is forecast to become a $3.7 million spend across local search (42.4 percent), classifieds/verticals (37.5 percent), video (14.7 percent) and other display ads (5.4 percent).
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BIA/Kelsey advises companies in the local media space through consulting and valuation services, research, Continuous Advisory Services and conferences. BIA/Kelsey's Media Ad View reports rack local advertising spending by media for the most recent year and five years out (2011-2016) for every local market.